Where to go from the frying pan?
The MQM dilemma for Nawaz Sharif
Shaheen Sehbai
THE SWIFT and ruthless, almost military, sweep against the MQM offices and
establishments in Karachi, including the personal home of Altaf Hussain, No. 90 in
Azizabad, shows the intensity of anger and severity of the military establishment
against politicians who cross the red line.
Within hours of Altaf Hussain's indefensible diatribes against Pakistan, without
even determining which laws were being used for charging any one, the MQM
offices were shut and sealed by a Magistrate, bulldozers went into overdrive and
started demolishing what were called illegally occupied buildings and the message
was sent that when action was required, it would be instant, brutal, effective and
without consideration of any political consequences.
Even before the political governments in Sindh and Islamabad could figure out
how to handle the latest, though not unfamiliar, outbursts of Altaf Hussain in a
state of half or full drunkenness as the MQM leader Farooq Sattar indicated, the
mighty military machine was in action, leaving some very critical and difficult
choices for the political set up.
Now that the MQM supremo in London had been unofficially, and practically,
(though not officially and legally), declared a traitor against Pakistan - which he
almost proved by his subsequent telephonic but recorded conversations with his
supporters in US, Canada, South Africa and Europe - his party in Pakistan had no
option but to disown, condemn, discard, and finally abuse him, if needed.
Farooq Sattar, who had been just recently named as the successor in Pakistan by
Altaf Hussain, had to take U-Turns after U-Turns, moved around in circles and
tried in vain to protect his boss, but still could not declare independence from
London.
He was caught in a net that left him with no choices other than to survive by just
dumping his leader in the media. If he had to survive he had either to disband his
party or get officially banned by the government under intense and continuing
pressure from the GHQ in Pindi.
Sattar, who was just a housemaid of Altaf Hussain for all practical purposes, has
or had no clout or guts to declare himself a leader, although he heads the legal
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entity called the MQM of Pakistan which is registered with the Election
Commission.
But that is why he had been picked and backed by London for all these years.
He was a trustworthy guy with no balls to challenge his boss.
So whatever Sattar tried, he failed as pressure mounted on him to resign his seat
and either quit politics, leave Pakistan, or seriously join the others against Altaf
Hussain.
That is where Nawaz Sharif and his federal government have been caught in a
major political crisis.
If Farooq Sattar collapses and resigns, or disbands his legally registered MQM
under pressure, at least 25 National Assembly seats, almost 60 Sindh PA and
scores of local government seats including three elected mayors, will become
empty, forcing the electoral process to order fresh elections.
The argument that Farooq Sattar is the legal head under ECP rules does not hold,
as Sattar is guided by the constitution of MQM, which gives veto powers to Altaf
Hussain who has never considered it necessary to appoint any chairman, secretary
general, executive committee or parliamentary board. He runs the show with
"Contact (Rabita) Committees", totally under his thumb in Pakistan and London,
which by the way have no legal status any way.
So if the MQM of Sattar is banned, Nawaz Sharif is left with a huge gap in the
parliamentary structure that will have to be filled through elections in 90 days.
Combined with the increasing street pressures in Lahore and Islamabad by Imran
Khan and Allama Tahirul Qadri, who are both bent on jamming the federal and
provincial capitals on Sept 3 and thereafter, a by-election on 100 plus seats in
Sindh makes it a horrible prospect, multiplied by many unknown factors.
If MQM is not banned officially, the sealing and bull-dozing of some illegally
occupied and some very legal structures like the 90 home of Altaf Hussain will be
challenged in courts and increase the tensions between the civil and military set
ups. Who will explain why and what action was taken and who ordered it is a
mystery yet to be resolved.
Nawaz Sharif diffused some tensions despite immense mental agony, when he
had to concede three days ago to the appointment of the new Federal Defence
Secretary, a nominee of GHQ, although the PM House had refused to do so few
days back.
The GHQ did not budge, as it is clearly understood that any irresponsible action
by the PM House, like the one in 1999 when the ISI chief was named and crowned
as the new COAS when Gen. Musharraf was still on a flight to Karachi, has to be
checked at the level of the Defence Secretary. Without his official notification no
change can take place.
Reports in Islamabad say messages were sent through Shahbaz Sharif and
Choudhry Nisar that PM House should not repeat the foolish stubbornness of pre- Musharraf days, as
it could again turn out to be fatal. The PM is probably listening,
or gaining more time.
Reports also say Islamabad has been told in clear terms that no scandal or
stupidity like the elevation of General Raheel to Field Marshal Raheel, should be
propagated through any "chirya" or "Kabootar" in the media as it would be
considered as an attempt to create a mutiny in the khaki ranks.
Given these tight and firm positions, the MQM leader has landed the entire
political set up in the frying pan. The message sent by Pindi is that if action became
inevitable, it would be taken in the same manner against people and politicians like
it was taken against offices and centres of MQM --- instant, sweeping, ruthless and
without any fear of consequences.
If Nawaz does not hold his nerves, the eggs and chicken in the frying pan could
land in a real fire.