Time to accept some hard realities

[Mirza Ghalib]

Time to accept some hard realities

Ayaz Amir
Tuesday, December 02, 2014
From Print Edition

At about five in the evening, a few bald patches in D Chowk still visible, I said that Imran Khan’s rally was not the overpowering thing it should have been. Barely an hour later I was eating my words. Stepping down from the TV perch from where we were pontificating, and making my way to Jinnah Avenue, I was dumb-founded. For a river of people was flowing towards the parade ground, the venue of the jalsa.

Feeling a bit shamefaced, I went up to the Geo office for a cup of tea, worn out as I was for I had been there since 12 in the afternoon. When I came down to Jinnah Avenue again…the river was in high flood, ceaseless and unstoppable. When I asked a few people what had taken them so long, they said JUI-F workers/maulvis (Maulana Fazlur Rehman) had blocked the roads and they had to wait for hours before they could move towards Islamabad.

Consider this: a JUI-F leader is slain in Larkana, Sindh, and the Maulana’s cohorts block roads in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. And we are to believe that they were mourning the dead and not trying to sabotage the PTI rally. If PTI workers and sympathisers had been less fired up and determined they would have gone home and participation from KP would have been thin. Only the fact it was not a rent-a-crowd saved the day for them.

I can’t forget an old woman being helped along by her female relatives. I asked where they were coming from. Peshawar. When had they set out? 10 in the morning. And how old was the matriarch? 82. There was a young man on crutches hurrying towards the jalsa-gah.

The purpose is not to glorify the PTI, much less sing Imran Khan’s praises, but only to point out that this is a new phenomenon we are seeing. Imran Khan may have been around for a long time, struggling for the last 18 years, during which time a lesser man perhaps would have given up, but after these years in the wilderness, of not being taken seriously as a political figure, he has finally arrived. Like it or hate it, there is no escaping this reality.

The galvanising of the young and the not-so-young, of the middle class and the lower middle class, of whole sections of the people hitherto aloof from politics, the huge, unprecedented participation of women of all ages in PTI rallies, and the carnival atmosphere to be seen in those rallies…about this new spirit of engagement what the nay-sayers, and above all the ruling party, have to understand is that it is not going away anywhere any time soon. It is here to stay.

The PPP is dead and buried in its once-stronghold of Punjab. The PML-N is a product of times past, its sell-by date perhaps over. The PTI is the new enfant terrible to arrive on the national scene.

Those who think that Imran’s strength will ebb and the steam will go out of his balloon are fooling themselves. He has committed mistakes, even blunders – like his misplaced call for a civil disobedience movement. But these weaknesses pale beside his one undoubted achievement: the way he has stirred the stagnant waters of Pakistani politics and turned vague public frustration into a solid political movement. Excoriate him, pillory him, make fun of him…but you will have to be fooling yourself to insist, against all the evidence, a new thing at his hands has not come to exist.

The onus of recognition falls heaviest on the ruling party. The longer it takes for it to open its eyes to the new realities the more serious becomes its problem. If Nawaz Sharif thinks that Saad Rafiq’s histrionics or Pervaiz Rashid’s jibes – jumla-baazian – are a sufficient answer to Imran Khan he lives in his own world.

Imran Khan has no shortage of detractors but he has confounded them all. Since mid-August he has gone on from one thing to another: first the long march from Lahore, which wasn’t very impressive, then the prolonged sit-ins and the daily speeches from atop the container, high drama alternating with moments of farce, and the whole thing stretching out until it became a bore, testing the fortitude of his supporters and the patience of his listeners.

But just when it seemed he had run out of options he announced a series of meetings across the country, drawing mammoth crowds everywhere. Then out of the blue came the call for the Nov 30th show of force and, as I have said, until 5 in the evening I thought he had blown it, the jalsa not coming up to its high expectations.

I went so far as to tell Chaudhry Ghulam Hussain, the well-known TV host, and Nasim Zehra that we were watching a tragedy unfold, a movement which had attained its high point losing its momentum before our eyes. Then to my mounting disbelief the arena began filling up, as if reinforcements were coming from afar. If I do not overstate the case, would not Wellington have felt the same when Marshal Blucher’s Prussians arrived to his aid at Waterloo?

But the thing to note: even when it was all jam-packed, when a woman, a family, young girls, had to walk through, strutting young men would part, giving them the right of way. For young, smart-looking girls – some in jeans – to move thus freely without fear of molestation or touching in a Pakistani crowd is nothing short of a miracle. I don’t know what ‘naya Pakistan’ means but in this one circumstance it may already have come.

The PML-N strategy boils down to assuming that all this will pass and the ‘Kaptaan’ will be left with nothing but the echo of his own rhetoric. It is wrong, if only because it is not a flashing meteor across the skies that we are seeing, a blaze of light and then nothing. The PTI has already demonstrated staying power. Beyond that, having gone through its battle inoculation, it is now more confident of itself, a tried and tested force.

So anyone taking lightly Imran’s threat to up the ante and shut down major cities is probably making another mistake. If the JUI-F which doesn’t carry one-twentieth the PTI’s strength can block the roads and highways leading out of KP the ruling party will be deluding itself if it thinks that the PTI doesn’t have the muscle to block roads leading in and out of Lahore.

The crisis we already face thus becomes more acute. The stalemate deepens. Can any government function properly in such a situation? The negative TV ad campaign against the PTI already shows how much Imran Khan is on the nerves of the ruling family. Such tactics will get it nowhere. So shaking itself out of its stupor and mastering some of its prejudices, if it is to get anywhere it must think in broader terms.

Can it hold out some kind of an olive branch, some offer of talks? Only problem is that the role of peace-maker does not come easily to Nawaz Sharif. The related problem is that any acceptance of Imran Khan’s demands – election audit, etc – will be seen in the ruling family as akin to virtual political suicide.

This is not the stuff of tragedy – no need to dramatise it like that – but it does mean Pakistan at the mercy of egos that can’t rise above themselves. If there were no price to pay this could be viewed as spiced-up entertainment. Our history, however, points to more forbidding conclusions.

In 1977 Zulfikar Ali Bhutto stretched out negotiations with the PNA so much that Gen Zia got his chance to intervene. Whatever may have been written in his stars, to some extent Bhutto invited his own doom…just as Pakistan’s ruling classes invited the wrath of the furies in 1971 when they refused a settlement with the Awami League.

A political settlement of the present crisis…the opportunity for this is slipping through the fingers of the ruling set-up. Can something be done or are we watching another drama unfold?

[Mirza Ghalib]

Imran Khan’s Plan C
Ashraf Jehangir Qazi
Updated a day ago
The writer is a former ambassador to the US, India and China and head of UN missions in Iraq and Sudan.

THERE were many questions asked before Imran Khan’s Nov 30 dharna in Islamabad. How many would show up after 108 days with no apparent progress? Would there be violence? What new ideas would Imran have to offer? Was this his last throw of the dice? Or would he be able to inaugurate a new phase of the struggle to bring about a ‘New Pakistan’?

A large number of workers, supporters and spectators did show up. There was no violence. The mood remained enthusiastic. As for new ideas Imran reiterated his well-known demand for a judicial commission plus a joint investigation team to assist it in an electoral audit of four specified constituencies. To this he added his decision to shut down three major cities for a day on Dec 4, 8, and 12 respectively, and shutting down the whole country for a day on Dec 16 unless the government accepted his demands.

Does this confirm a roll of the dice in Last Chance Saloon? Or is it a clever upping of the ante against a government that has resumed its smug complacency after its nerves were severely tested over several weeks of a double dharna in the capital? In the likely event of the government’s refusal to entertain Imran’s demands and its determination to thwart any attempt to close down major cities, will Imran be able to implement his Plan C? And, of course, what could he have in mind while threatening a Plan D?

Closing down Karachi — even for a day — would require an understanding with the MQM. Closing down Lahore and Faisalabad would be a direct challenge to the Sharif brothers. The whole country would be curtains for them. It would have to involve an understanding with GHQ as the prime minister constitutionally retains the option of calling out the army to break any strike that could negatively impact on national security and the economy. Significantly, the umpire’s finger remained ‘masterly inactive’ during the first phase of the ‘occupation’ of Islamabad.

Accordingly, Plan C raises the question whether GHQ has changed its mind. The MQM may also not wish to risk its fragile understanding with the military by facilitating Imran in his more radical course of confrontation. Or has Imran decided to appeal directly to the urban masses over the heads of any and every centre of power? If so, he will be moving into virgin political territory.

There are many commentators and observers who incline to the view that a frustrated Imran has lost his marbles and is finally showing what an adolescent he really is. They will expect many of his more ‘mature and seasoned’ party colleagues to sooner or later review their decision to tie their political fortunes to such an unstable and populist demagogue. Some might recall Faiz Sahib’s critical comments on Josh’s poetic concept of the romantic hero who embodies a revolution in himself, in contrast to a genuine revolutionary who devotes his whole self to the service of the people as a purpose far greater than himself.

Stringent criticisms of Imran are commonly found among the safedposh ie the elites, apparatchiks and other social and political status quo stakeholders. They are also tellingly to be found among liberal and progressive civil society activists whom he needs to cultivate. But among the poorer youth, the unhappy, the weak, and other victims of the system there is such a profound and visceral aversion towards the ‘rentier’ and free-loading ruling classes that Imran, with all his shortcomings, can do no wrong in their eyes even when they know he is not always right. They see him as their last chance.

The comfortable classes may want an end to the ‘tamasha’ of dharnas, rallies, declamations, accusations, boorish language, jarring slogans, roadblocks, dislocations, loss of commerce and now, the threat of a series of large-scale city shutdowns that could shake their cosy and corrupt world. But there is also a rapidly growing underclass of people who are beginning to understand they do not have to remain losers for ever. Imran has made them aware of the prospect and promise of an order in which they can find inclusion and influence.

They see a stubborn and self-centred Imran as the only leader who has identified himself with their welfare and is unrelenting in his determination to make a real difference for the better in their lives. The risk that he may not live up to their expectations does not deter them. When Imran repeats ‘ad nauseum’ that the only asset of the people is their vote, their only enemies are corrupt leaders who destroy the value of their vote, and their only prospect is to sink in a swamp of corruption and cynicism unless they stand up for their rights, he strikes a chord with them that no other political leader comes close to doing.

So even when Imran appears quixotic, self-willed, irrational, and at times arrogant and uneducated, it is his disinterested commitment to the people combined with his renowned will to prevail over all odds that sustains them in the hopes they invest in him. One might argue these beautiful illusions will come crashing down upon his followers and, sooner or later, they will have to come to terms with the reality that he offers them nothing.

But the reality they confront is that the available alternatives to Imran — civilian and military — have all been tested and found utterly wanting. Moreover, the current and former political leadership have made it clear they have absolutely no interest in doing anything for the people except to deceive in their name. The middle-class intelligentsia may mock Imran as dim, a dunderhead and given to diatribes, but for a developing majority who never enter the reckoning of chic political pundits, Imran is a knight in shining armour who is driven to fulfil their hopes. Plan C, for them, is a step in the right direction. Pakistan remains at a crossroads.

The writer is a former ambassador to the US, India and China and head of UN missions in Iraq and Sudan.

Published in Dawn, December 2nd, 2014

[Mirza Ghalib]

The rise and rise of Kaptaan
By Rasul Bakhsh Rais
Published: December 3, 2014


The writer is a security and political analyst and works at the Institute of Strategic Studies, Islamabad

The rise of Imran Khan from the world of cricket to the driving seat of Pakistan’s generally dynastic, feudal politics is the biggest change we have witnessed in decades. The November 30 rally in Islamabad, the biggest ever by the kaptaan, and the largest ever by any political leader, present or past, speaks a lot about the growing public support for him in every corner of the country. The rallies he has held in other cities of Punjab and Sindh have been very successful, more in Punjab in terms of numbers. In many ways, he has changed the political culture of Pakistan by raising awareness about the major problems Pakistan faces from widespread corruption by the elite to governance crisis and poor investment in education and health.

The conventional parties and their leaders have taken refuge in ‘saving democracy’, showing their majority in parliament and by closing their ranks against kaptaan’s agitation politics. Unable to defend themselves effectively by counterargument or evidence, failing to contradict what the PTI says about their character of politics and misuse of power and national resources, they have hoped that agitation will cause his politics to taper off. As appears from the recent public rallies, neither is the kaptaan tired and nor are his generally young supporters. Rather, the excitement and commitment to changing the functioning of the political order are on the ascent.

Something the old parties are missing in their understanding, or deliberately turning a blind eye to, is the distrust of the middle class, both urban and rural and its unprecedented politicisation. This is, perhaps, the major factor that accounts for the growing popularity of the kaptaan. The leaders of the dynastic parties have nothing to offer to this disillusioned class. With more urbanisation, the political power and influence of this class has grown a great deal. At the moment, this class is solidly with the PTI.

The second important factor that explains the rise of leaders in every competitive, democratic polity is their credibility. The question that is always on the minds of the people is: can they trust them? People in the democratic politics of the two major parties, the PML-N and the PPP have mattered very little, if at all. They have substituted genuine support of the people with building elite networks, the exclusive clubs of political families. In doing so, never were they alive to the changing political reality of Pakistan: increasing distrust in the ruling dynasties and new voices of change that the media and social discourses have popularised. For long, they have lost touch with the political reality of a quietly changing Pakistan. On the other hand, people listen to and believe Imran Khan. He has etched a place deep in their political imagination for the better future of the country.

Finally, there is the political message of the kaptaan that has made great political waves in the country. Consistently, for years, he has focused on merit, transparency in government affairs, accountability and responsible governance. Sick and tired of systematic corruption, bad governance, and undocumented accumulation of wealth by powerful sections of society, the general public appears to be embracing his politics and leadership as the best hope for real change.

Furthermore, there are two significant things, in my view, about the rise of kaptaan: his de-legitimisation of old politics and trust in the people’s ability to change what he calls the corrupt and dysfunctional political system. He shows beaming confidence in his own ability to change Pakistan and rebuild the fractured ties between the state and society. The idiom has gone viral — the only cure is change itself.

Published in The Express Tribune, December 3rd, 2014.

[Mirza Ghalib]

What does Imran Khan want?
By Imtiaz Gul
Published: December 3, 2014


The writer heads the independent Centre for Research and Security Studies, Islamabad

What does Imran Khan want — is it just power or a revolution? This question kept resonating at a recent conference in the UK. Most vocal among the enquirers were at least five foreign diplomats who are familiar with Pakistan because of their assignments in Islamabad. They all sounded sympathetic to the narrative that Khan peddles today i.e., rule of law, accountability, and peoples’ empowerment through district governments and autonomous national institutions. But they clearly differed with the PTI methodology (ouster of the government through sit-ins). Lots of critics at home, too, have had a similar contention with the PTI and its leadership, which have been oscillating between legitimate aspirations (mentioned above) and paradoxical approaches to fulfill those aspirations. Only a few weeks into the Islamabad dharna — once Khan and his cohorts diligently made their point about the rule of law and real democratic values — even sympathisers had begun requesting Khan and company to wrap up the protest and instead build upon the goodwill that the party received in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (K-P) and elsewhere.

By discarding advice on how the party can consolidate its power base in K-P through institutional reforms and then showcase its achievements there, the entire leadership continues to silently tail Khan and be led by his belligerent, shallow, and at times, contradictory rhetoric. This has certainly taken the attention, even of the PTI leadership, off some of the good work that the party has silently done since the summer of 2013.

In the first place, the PTI narrative since August has polarised the country in two camps i.e., forces of the status quo and those challenging it. The fact that none of the other parties, including the PPP and the PML-N, are in favour of local government elections also underscores their contempt for devolution.

Secondly, (all based on personal experiences of people living in Peshawar, D I Khan and Kohat) no provincial police enjoys as much operational autonomy as the K-P police. Its chief has single-handedly dismissed over 414 officials on corruption or disciplinary charges, recruited several hundred new personnel through the National Testing Service — all without any interference from the chief minister or the party chief.

Thirdly, the land revenue officials (patwari/tehsildar) have never been this dutiful and averse to illegal money. My sister struck a deal for a residential plot in Peshawar Town shortly after the elections last year. She was told — of course, unofficially — by the land revenue official (agents of the patwari) that the transaction (transfer of plot in her name) would cost about Rs300,000. But, lo and behold, the transfer took place only for about Rs29,000 — the official transfer fee deposited in the provincial exchequer. A friend in D I Khan, too, went through a similar experience and had his land issue settled for only a few thousand rupees. This is happening because the provincial government introduced new procedures, including checks on department officials to minimise graft.

Fourth, Peshawar’s two major hospitals have undergone major operational changes. Most Peshawar residents are surprised over the nearly free, but extremely professional and caring treatment administered by the doctors and the paramedics.

Fifth, all contractors and the bureaucracy are up in arms against the provincial government for introducing tendering procedures. Contractors and bureaucrats are systematically stone-walling development work because new procedures have deprived them of their kick-backs and windfalls. That is why much of the development funds for this year have lapsed. Earlier, a pack of contractors would converge at the relevant office, negotiate a deal among themselves and settle on one final bidder. The undeclared part of the process was about 10 per cent of the total tender amount that the bidders would factor into the bid for the ‘authorities’. Now, the bids are discussed openly and contracts awarded only after detailed discussions.

This reflects an effort to bring about institutional changes, if not reforms, to the context of decades of misgoverning and corruption led by deeply entrenched forces of the status quo. Khan and his colleagues will certainly be the beneficiaries if they can push their reform agenda in K-P and then showcase it for the next election. Unfortunately, it seems that they are surrounded by hawkish, short-sighted advisers who refuse to invoke logic and instead, are peddling an agenda that at times sounds hollow, contradictory and self-serving. Their supporters abroad, therefore, are incensed over the continued wailing over ‘electoral fraud’.

As the former ambassadors in the conference questioned, why can’t Khan and the PTI move on for a better future of their constituents rather than staying beholden to ill-advice, which is disruptive and discrediting their reformist agenda.

Published in The Express Tribune, December 3rd, 2014.

[Mirza Ghalib]

Four articles by four different journalists on the extraordinary events of Nov 30 in Islamabad. I still think Ayaz Amir touched the heart of the matter with a fluency lacking in the other pieces. Also, let me add, abuse Imran as much as you like, none of you pointed out one thing obvious to us his followers: the crash course IK has provided to the public on how to become a united and law-abiding nation. Such has been the point of his dharnas and repetitions. Get us to think at long last and articulate our grievances. Forget Naya Pakistan and give a warm welcome to the New Pakistanis.

[Shimatoree]

Mg

I was going to comment on this post but the Garbage Dumps of Nowshehra………..the home town of the PTI Chief MInister stopped me cold.

[Mirza Ghalib]

Like you, Shim, I've never been able to understand how Pakistanis put up with so much dirt around them. Cleanliness, hygiene, the very things revolutionary Muslim medicine taught the West in the Middle Ages, are the very things we tend to ignore with royal indifference today. So three cheers for your piece on the garbage dumps of Nowshera. And the even more frightening lines you wrote on Peshawar's pollution of its water sources.

PTI's political choices at the moment may not have been yours or mine had we been asked for our opinion. But it's theirs and my job is simply to try and understand what, if anything, they stand to gain by them and what they they may end up by losing.

Whatever, I'm slowly coming to the conclusion, specially after reading you, that whatever else we may manage to fix in Pakistan in the meantime, environmental concerns, cleanliness, etc. will come last on our agenda. I say this with a great deal of sorrow, but the difference between you and me is probably that I see where we Keep going wrong and yet have an eye open for the few things we manage to get right as well in a Pakistan run as a Family Ltd Enterprise.

[Shimatoree]

Mg

Look……………the Dharna though successful in political terms has brought to light the lack of THINKING and PLANNING again.
Just take one example that I have mentioned before………..the foresight required to plan for the normal biological excretions of human beings.
Imagine the pompous self promoting Bhashans of the great Molana Qadri….about graves and shrouds etc but…………when he came out to see his troops………..I am sure you did not fail to notice the handkerchief on his nose to keep the SMELLS away from his senses. PTI is much less organized so no planning would ne the normal thing for them.

Now let me take you one step ahead……………in the Dharna there were no more than 100,000 people at one given time………….and it STUNK to high heaven.
In this country of 180 million plus………..everyone-( except the well to do)- shits and pisses where every they can…they throw the garbage right OUTSIDE their house-( if they have a house)- and these people of Pakistan feel that it is someone else's job to do the cleaning…………and those that SHIT are increasing in numbers geometrically every moment………………get the picture.

And NAYA Pakistan…..will be of a STINKING type since no one is paying attention to the problem of rubbish.

[stingingnettle]

Whilst I realise this thread is not really about what I am about to write but I am reacting to comments by both Shimatoree and MG sahibs;

The moment we disengage religion from the rhetoric of cleanliness, we will see the mountains of filth around us. The problem we have in Pakistan is lot bigger than Sharifs, Zardaris, a lack of planning and corruption; the problem is us - both as a people and as a nation (if such a thing exists). Filth needs a medium to permeate through and we are it.

Every day that we spend externalising the problem, is another day we spend in splendid inaction. TUQ has proved himself to be a terrible preacher and an even worse politician. The stink he is trying to keep out with his handkerchief is going to take a lead block of reality to stop.

Self-referential stories of past glory are great but they do nothing to modify behaviour; you want proof? Take the handkerchief off your nose in a street of any big city in Pakistan and take a deep breath.

How long did it take you to exhale?